Is China’s housing price inflection point? There are cities that can't sell a real estate for five years.

This article comes from WeChat public number: CCTV Finance


According to the house price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday (18th), both the ring data and the year-on-year data showed that the price increase trend was contained. However, the first-tier cities saw a slight increase from the previous month. In June, Hefei, which led the nationwide property market to rise in price, rose by 4.9%.


Lu'an, Anhui: It has not been sold out for four or five years.


Lu'an City is located in the western part of Anhui Province, between the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River. It borders Hefei City, the provincial capital, and Henan Province in the west. Lu'an has three districts and four counties with a total area of ​​15,000 square kilometers. It is the largest prefecture-level city in Anhui Province. The city has a population of 5.8 million, of which the rural population accounts for 59%. Compared with other cities in Anhui Province, the urbanization level of Lu'an City is not high, but the inventory of new buildings is among the best in the province. There are many huge sales billboards on the streets of Lu'an. From the national roads entering the city to the city center, there are slogans such as preferential prices, subsidies, and existing houses. The reporter randomly entered a sales office in Yu'an District to understand the situation.


A real estate salesperson in Lu'an City, Anhui Province told reporters that the original price of this property may be 3200-3500, and the current price is about 2900, 3000. The property opened last year, the highest sales last year to more than 3,800, and according to sales staff, the property is now a lot of housing, and the floor is positive, not the upper or lower, there is only one set sold.


Chengnan is only 3 kilometers away from the city center of Lu'an. It used to be called Chengnan Town. It was called the Chengnan New District by local people. The south and east of Lu'an are newly built new towns in recent years, and many real estates have been developed. According to the reporter's understanding, since the city began to build a large-scale town in only seven or eight years, the first time the building was opened, it was four or five years ago. Although these properties have been open for several years, many communities still have houses that have not been sold out, so they still retain sales offices.


In Hefei, the capital of Anhui Province, adjacent to Lu'an, the average house price in 2013 was 6,855 yuan / square meter. The current average price is 10074 yuan / square meter, an increase of nearly 50%, but the price of Lu'an has not risen.


According to the data released by the Lu'an Municipal Construction and Construction Committee, the average selling price of commercial housing in January-May 2016 was 4517 yuan / square meter, down 5.09% year-on-year and 5.01% lower than the previous month.


Guo Hongbing, Dean of Qingyuan Real Estate Research Institute of Anhui Province: This kind of house price in Hefei City has experienced a very rapid rise in the process, but since the supply of Lu’an itself is there, the increase has not been transmitted to Lu’an City. go with.


Lu'an, Anhui: The owner of the unfinished building is only on the roadside


In the south and east of Lu'an City, there are a large number of newly built commercial houses. Although the number of real estates under construction is quite large, it is difficult to see the construction of the hot weather. Because there are some real estate projects that have been shut down in half, and the long downtime has been two or three years. Although many buyers have obtained the keys, they are faced with a community that may be difficult to complete, and some even can no longer obtain real estate licenses.


The reporter came to the south of Lu'an City, Anhui Province. The area in the south of the city was built around 2008. Many new residential buildings can be seen on both sides of the road. However, the windows and balconies of these buildings, many windows have no curtains installed, the proportion of drying clothes and stacking debris on the balcony is also very low, which also shows that the occupancy rate of this building is relatively low, such buildings in the south of the city are everywhere. On the other side of the road, there is a building under construction in the distance, but look closely, this tower crane is in a static state. It is understood that this property has been shut down for about one year. Buildings that have been built in half way like this will not only have this property in the south of the city.


What is the special feature of Lu'an City South? One side of the road is a newly built residential building, and the other side of the road is a wasteland. You can see that the area of ​​this wasteland is not small, and many vegetables have been planted. The reporter walked around the city and saw many scenes like this. The construction of the residential building in the south of the city is very large, but the supporting construction of business, education and medical care is still very small.


The reporter came to a number of sales offices to see the house, did not see a customer who came to see the room, and no sales staff took the initiative to receive. Sales people are playing mobile phones or chatting behind the bar. There are even a few sales people who have no uniforms in their buildings, leaving only a middle-aged woman to watch the door. When the reporter walked into a sales office, there was no one in the empty room. The sand table on the sales office and the table were covered with thick dust. It seems that the house has not been sold for a long time. A landlord who is renovating the house is waiting for someone in the sales office. When I saw the reporters asking about the price, I was very enthusiastic about selling my house to the reporter.


The reason why the owner is eager to shoot is because the real estate is facing the risk of unfinished business. Several buildings with earlier construction of the real estate have been sold, and the newly built building has been shut down only halfway through construction. The supporting facilities such as greening in the community have not been completed. According to the owner, the property has been parked for about five months. It is said that the developer owed money to the bank. The bank closed it and stopped it. Now it has been given to the real estate company.


There are not only one real estate in Lu'an City, but there are some real estate projects that have become ridiculous and turned into vegetable gardens. The online media such as Lu’an Forum can also see the posts and citizens of Liu’an. Raise banners to protest the news of the open business.


Huang Wei, general manager of Lu'an Guangyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd.: We know that the developers are running, bad, and the capital chain is broken. We have heard that there are at least four or five. However, for example, some real estates are sold out, but the real estate license can't be done. This situation is actually there in the south of the city, not a two-piece thing.


Lu'an, Anhui: New property prices are also not sold


The overall inventory pressure in Lu'an City is relatively high, and most of the real estate inventory tasks are very difficult. In the three or four years since the opening, it is considered that the sales situation is good. The reporters also went to Lu'an city center and Xincheng District to get to know the situation and see how good the best-selling real estate can be.


The reporter came to a real estate in the south of Lu'an City to understand the situation. This district is a school district, surrounded by Central Primary School, Yu'an Middle School and Provincial Key High School Chengnan Middle School. The plot covers an area of ​​140 mu. Since its opening in 2013, it has sold more than 800 houses in 4 years. The price has basically remained unchanged, and this performance is already better in the same area.


Huang Wei, general manager of Lu'an Guangyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd.: I don't want you to say that our price should be stopped, and the price increase is definitely not going up.


Huang Wei, general manager of Lu'an Guangyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd.: Can't say that before returning to liberation, it is probably equivalent to the level of five years ago. When we took the land four or five years ago, we expected the price to be around 4,200 and 4,500. However, the actual average price is now only 3600, 3800.


In the sales center of this real estate, selling advertisements for special rooms, the special room is 2,800 yuan per square meter, which is about 1,000 yuan lower than the average price of the real estate. But the salesperson said, don't look so cheap, so the special room can't be sold.


Huang Wei, general manager of Lu'an Guangyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd.: Some experts and scholars have called for developers to actively reduce prices in response to the call for central destocking. According to market practice, there are also very low prices around us, but it still sells. Similarly, due to the floor, location, and all aspects of our community, there are also relatively unsatisfactory properties. We also do special sales and are not good to sell. So, it’s not that you can go to stock once you cut the price.


The salesperson said that the property market in Lu'an is a double-fired day. Some real estates in the new district are also unable to sell at a reduced price. Some real estates in the city center are rushing. The reporter also went to the real estate that he said to sell fire to understand the situation.


Lu'an's real estate inventory is relatively large, this inventory is in a higher level in Anhui Province, so most of the real estate sales pressure is relatively large, not very good sales, but there are also some real estate sales are not bad. The real estate where the reporter is located is one of the hottest properties sold by Lu'an this year. But when the reporter came to the sales office, there was no one who saw the empty one here. No one was here to see the house. Sales staff told reporters that this is because their house is basically sold out, and now there is no room to sell. This property was pushed to a building at the end of May. On the opening day, there was even a scene of shaking the number to grab the house. However, this year, the six security city has only one scene of this property.


Shen Shidong, general manager of Anhui Yanye Yinhua Investment Co., Ltd.: At 6 o'clock in the morning, many customers have already arrived at the scene. At that time, we had more than 100 houses, and there were about 400 customers at the scene. In the two hours, the whole set was deconstructed by 120 sets. The opening method we used was the shaking number, which caused a sensation in the city of Lu'an.


This property is located in the center of Lu'an, with a planned area of ​​150,000 square meters. There are many schools and bustling commercial areas around. In the case of a large inventory pressure in Lu'an City, this property can also appear to rob the room, so many locals are shocked. However, from the point of view of sales price, the opening price at the beginning of 2014 was 5,300 yuan. When the overall market was not good, it was reduced to 4,800 yuan. The current price is around 5,500 yuan, which is only 200 yuan higher than the opening price two years ago. A number of industry insiders said that they can achieve a 75% rate of reduction without lowering prices, which is already very good sales performance in Lu'an City.


Lu'an, Anhui: migrant workers in the capital city


Lu'an has a large agricultural population and a large proportion of rural residents entering the city. This has led to two special phenomena in the real estate market in Lu'an: one is that small-sized houses are also sold at a reduced price, suitable for large-scale apartments of three generations. It is popular; the second is that many people who go to the provincial capital to go home after the New Year, so they prefer Hefei Real Estate, and are not willing to buy a house in Lu'an.


The agricultural population of Lu'an City is relatively large, and many township population have entered the city for the first time. These customers are characterized by three generations of the same family, so the number of units above 120 square meters is more popular, and small and medium-sized units are difficult to sell. Many developers in the south of the city have made small-sized units special treatment, and some developers have seen the difficulty of selling small-sized units in the first phase. In the subsequent construction, the design of small-sized units was directly removed.


Guo Hongbing, Dean of Qingyuan Real Estate Research Institute of Anhui Province: Lu'an is now a city with more counties in Anhui Province, and its overall urbanization level is still in a situation to be improved. In addition, as far as the whole city of Lu'an is concerned, its area is relatively large, and there are many mountainous areas. The process of concentration in Lu'an is also obvious. Farmers entering the city are also more obvious.


As Lu'an City is still dominated by agriculture, the industry and service industry are not particularly developed. Many people working in cities are preferred to work in the neighboring provincial capital of Hefei. These people will not return to Lu'an until the end of the year. As a result, some of the customer groups have flowed to the provincial capital to purchase homes.


Wang Yongxing, general manager of Anhui Lanhuo Real Estate Consultant Co., Ltd.: Most of the real estates we operate from now, from the countryside, or from the county, directly to the provincial capital to buy, skip the Lu'an directly, or jump directly Overdue. For the entire province of Anhui, the area of ​​the north and south, basically the intention to buy a house, the preferred choice is Hefei.


Judging from the development investment of Lu'an real estate market in the past five years, real estate investment in 2011 was 9.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.4%. After that, the annual investment amount has increased, and the growth rate has gradually slowed down. In 2014 and 2015, the volume of land in Lu'an City decreased year-on-year, and the proportion of residential land transactions decreased. In 2014, 6.6% of the land sold in the city was residential land, and the proportion of residential land in 2014 was 4.3%. In Hefei, which is adjacent to Lu'an City, the proportion of residential land in 2015 reached 19.4%.


In the details of the land supply situation in Anhui Province in May, we saw that the land supply area of ​​Lu'an City in May was 603.6 mu, but the transaction area and turnover were both zero.


Wang Yongxing, general manager of Anhui Lanhuo Real Estate Consultant Co., Ltd.: A city's real estate needs to be hot. The main reason for the population to flow is to have a population, an industry, and an industry to retain talents.


Lu'an, Anhui: The government's money is still high


Lu'an's real estate inventory is large, and the price cut is not good. Why does this happen? In the face of the difficulty of destocking, what measures has the Lu’an Municipal Government taken to stimulate the property market? Have these measures played a significant effect?


The reason why there are a large number of newly-built commercial houses in Lu'an City is that the price cuts are not sold. This is mainly due to the plan to concentrate the transfer of land and the lack of supporting facilities during the development and construction in previous years.


Huang Wei, general manager of Lu'an Guangyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd.: At that time, in 2011 and 2012, nearly 20 plots were transferred in the past two years. At that time, when there were so many places to sell, there were no roads at the time. Let’s see It was a wasteland, and even the average off-road vehicle could not be opened.


At present, the surrounding area of ​​Chengnan is still a large wasteland. More than 20 buildings are built in the south of the city, but today there is only one bus line, which can not meet the needs of residents. According to the statistics of relevant institutions, the new housing development area of ​​Lu'an in 2011 was 4.41 million square meters, up 77.3% year-on-year. After that, the annual new construction volume was maintained at 4.5 million square meters. In 2011, a large number of commercial housing units began to be built, and the market demand did not increase sharply, which led to the production of a large number of commercial housing stocks. As of the end of 2015, the number of sets of commercial housing available in Lu'an City was 4,1990 sets, and the inventory volume increased slightly by 1.2% compared with previous years. According to the average monthly de-conducting number in 2015, the inventory de-construction cycle was 23.8 months, and the destocking pressure was huge. In order to go to stock, the Lu'an City Government has also introduced a series of measures to purchase housing subsidies. The reporter saw an ultra-low price of about 2,500 yuan in a number of real estate projects, and then enjoyed government subsidized advertising.


A real estate salesperson told reporters that even if there is no account in Lu'an City, you can enjoy the subsidy given by the government as long as you buy a house.


Lu’an City introduced a subsidy policy for housing purchase last year. In the urban area, the purchase of commercial housing below 144 square meters can enjoy a price subsidy of 200 yuan per square meter and a financial subsidy of 50% of the deed tax. In addition, Lu'an City also introduced a purchase coupon policy. The purchase of house vouchers is selected for resettlement, and the construction area is calculated according to the 1.15 times of the construction area of ​​the house to be requisitioned. That is to say, the house to be relocated has 100 square meters. If you choose to purchase a house voucher, you can increase the price of the resettlement house by 15 square meters. You can also buy commercial houses in the city with the purchase of house vouchers.


Guo Hongbing, Dean of Qingyuan Real Estate Research Institute of Anhui Province: When the first round of housing tickets began to be applied, the sales growth of commercial housing will be more obvious. When the ticket is in the past, its decline is still obvious. For the deed tax policy, the change is not great.


Even if a series of policies were introduced last year to stimulate the property market, the inventory level of commercial housing is still high. In the vicinity of the main city, along the south of the city, the 30th shop, the Liushu three roads and other areas, the stock room is about 3 million square meters, showing an outer ring distribution. The overall occupancy rate in these areas is still very low, and local real estate developers estimate that the occupancy rate is about one-third. Walking in the streets of the south of the city at night, it is difficult to see pedestrians, in stark contrast to the bustling downtown of Lu'an.


Most of the roads in the south of the city have only two rows of street lights. Due to the small number of shops and low occupancy rate, it is difficult to see the landscape lights and the light boxes of the shops. The number of passing cars on the street is also very small. Occasionally there are several large trucks passing by, and taxis are hard to find.


The situation in Lu'an City is not a special case. The real estate market in cities like Huainan, Handan and Tongling in Anhui Province is also facing greater pressure. However, in April this year, the new construction area of ​​commercial housing in Anhui Province rose by 95% year-on-year, showing a rapid recovery trend. Compared with the central provinces such as Henan and Shanxi, the growth rate of new construction area in Anhui from January to April is still the lowest.


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