The first show of pulp futures did not greet the "open door" as scheduled, why did it shocked and stunned?

Source: Research Institute

The pulp futures contract was launched this week. The SP1906 contract closed at 5148 / ton, down 13.91% from the opening benchmark price; the SP1909 contract closed at 5082 / ton, down 15.01% from the opening benchmark price. Pulp futures contracts currently have a total holding capacity of 134,800 lots.

Market review

The pulp futures contract was launched this week. The SP1906 contract closed at 5148 / ton, down 13.91% from the opening benchmark price; the SP1909 contract closed at 5082 / ton, down 15.01% from the opening benchmark price. Pulp futures contracts currently have a total holding capacity of 134,800 lots.

From November 26th to November 30th, 2018, the international price of softwood in Canada was 810 US dollars/ton, which was 60 US dollars/ton lower than last week. Russia's black needle and cloth needle Chinese main The import price of Hong Kong was 785 US dollars/ton, which was the same as last week (iron transport); the import price of Chilean Silver Star China main port was 780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars/ton from last week. In terms of price of Shandong Province, the price of softwood in Shandong was 6350/ton, which was 325/ton lower than last week. The sales price of Russian black needle and cloth needle was 6000/ton, which was 325/ton lower than last week. The Chilean Pacific sales price for the week was 6,000 / ton, a decrease of 325 / ton from last week.

From November 26 to November 30, 2018, the international price of broadleaf pulp, the import price of the Brazilian parrot China main port was 780 US dollars / ton, which was the same as last week's price; the Indonesian leaflet hard Chinese main port import price was 785 US dollars. / ton, unchanged from last week's price; Chilean star China's main port import price is 710 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 70 US dollars / ton from last week; Russia Uschi, Bravik China's main port import price (iron transport) is 700 US dollars / ton, the price was unchanged from last week. In terms of domestic hardwood pulp market prices, the price of Brazilian parrots in Shandong is 5,425 per ton, a decrease of 300 per ton from last week; the market price of Chilean stars is 5,425 per ton in the week, a decrease of 325 per ton from last week; Indonesian leaflets are hard The price is 5425 / ton, a decrease of 275 / ton from last week.

Future market outlook

Internationally, the global monthly shipments of wood pulp and annual cumulative shipments are all in the past 8 years, but there are problems at the consumer end. The inventory of wood pulp ports in the EU and the stocks of wood pulp ports in China are all at a new high. The high internal inventory will put downward pressure on the international price of bleaching needles and the price of bleaching pulp. Domestically, domestic paper mills have recently issued stop letters, and the downward pressure on downstream paper products will weaken in the short term, but will reduce the demand for bleaching needles to a certain extent. The price of bleaching needles will face downward pressure. In the long run, the current domestic economic growth Weakness, the Sino-US trade war has increased economic instability, or reduced downstream paper products. For a long time, we have a cautious view of floating needle futures.

Strategy

In the first week of the listing, the drifting needle futures fell sharply by 13.91%. Recently, big manufacturers have released the Spring Festival shutdown maintenance plan, or reduced the demand for upstream raw materials. In the short term, the drifting needle futures still face greater downward pressure. At the same time, however, the current futures price has been discounted at a spot price of over 1000/ton, and the price of 5148/ton is close to the normal price level after the coniferous pulp in 2013. Investors are cautiously short and can wait patiently for the basis repair.

risk point

Policy risk, weather risk in major producing countries, exchange rate risk, trade war risk

Responsible editor: Ge


This article is posted on the website for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not imply endorsement of its views or confirmation of its description.


The pulp futures contract was launched this week. The SP1906 contract closed at 5148 / ton, down 13.91% from the opening benchmark price; the SP1909 contract closed at 5082 / ton, down 15.01% from the opening benchmark price. Pulp futures contracts currently have a total holding capacity of 134,800 lots.

Market review

The pulp futures contract was launched this week. The SP1906 contract closed at 5148 / ton, down 13.91% from the opening benchmark price; the SP1909 contract closed at 5082 / ton, down 15.01% from the opening benchmark price. Pulp futures contracts currently have a total holding capacity of 134,800 lots.

From November 26th to November 30th, 2018, the international price of softwood in Canada was 810 US dollars/ton, which was 60 US dollars/ton lower than last week. Russia's black needle and cloth needle Chinese main The import price of Hong Kong was 785 US dollars/ton, which was the same as last week (iron transport); the import price of Chilean Silver Star China main port was 780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars/ton from last week. In terms of price of Shandong Province, the price of softwood in Shandong was 6350/ton, which was 325/ton lower than last week. The sales price of Russian black needle and cloth needle was 6000/ton, which was 325/ton lower than last week. The Chilean Pacific sales price for the week was 6,000 / ton, a decrease of 325 / ton from last week.

From November 26 to November 30, 2018, the international price of broadleaf pulp, the import price of the Brazilian parrot China main port was 780 US dollars / ton, which was the same as last week's price; the Indonesian leaflet hard Chinese main port import price was 785 US dollars. / ton, unchanged from last week's price; Chilean star China's main port import price is 710 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 70 US dollars / ton from last week; Russia Uschi, Bravik China's main port import price (iron transport) is 700 US dollars / ton, the price was unchanged from last week. In terms of domestic hardwood pulp market prices, the price of Brazilian parrots in Shandong is 5,425 per ton, a decrease of 300 per ton from last week; the market price of Chilean stars is 5,425 per ton in the week, a decrease of 325 per ton from last week; Indonesian leaflets are hard The price is 5425 / ton, a decrease of 275 / ton from last week.

Future market outlook

Internationally, the global monthly shipments of wood pulp and annual cumulative shipments are all in the past 8 years, but there are problems at the consumer end. The inventory of wood pulp ports in the EU and the stocks of wood pulp ports in China are all at a new high. The high internal inventory will put downward pressure on the international price of bleaching needles and the price of bleaching pulp. Domestically, domestic paper mills have recently issued stop letters, and the downward pressure on downstream paper products will weaken in the short term, but will reduce the demand for bleaching needles to a certain extent. The price of bleaching needles will face downward pressure. In the long run, the current domestic economic growth Weakness, the Sino-US trade war has increased economic instability, or reduced downstream paper products. For a long time, we have a cautious view of floating needle futures.

Strategy

In the first week of the listing, the drifting needle futures fell sharply by 13.91%. Recently, big manufacturers have released the Spring Festival shutdown maintenance plan, or reduced the demand for upstream raw materials. In the short term, the drifting needle futures still face greater downward pressure. At the same time, however, the current futures price has been discounted at a spot price of over 1000/ton, and the price of 5148/ton is close to the normal price level after the coniferous pulp in 2013. Investors are cautiously short and can wait patiently for the basis repair.

risk point

Policy risk, weather risk in major producing countries, exchange rate risk, trade war risk

Responsible editor: Ge

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