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News roundup for Fri, May 20, 2022
In short:
- This hurricane season could be as severe as 2005, with the potential for another Katrina-like disaster.
- Gas inventories are at historic lows, and prices may surge to $6 per gallon by the end of summer.
- President Biden has activated the Defense Production Act to address the baby formula shortage.
- The FDA has approved Pfizer’s booster shot for children aged 5–11, and the CDC is offering more free tests.
- Switzerland is moving closer to NATO membership, while Finland and Sweden have officially applied.
**Climate**
The conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are eerily similar to those that led to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Sea temperatures are already above average, and a warm tropical current is extending unusually far into the Gulf. If this Loop Current reaches as far north as Tampa this early in the season, it could lead to catastrophic impacts along the northern Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida. For a detailed breakdown of why this matters, how hurricanes form, and how La Niña and climate change are influencing this season, check out the linked article.
[Image: The Loop Current was about as far north as Tampa, Florida, in mid-May 2022. Nick Shay/University of Miami, CC BY-ND]
[Image: The Loop Current in May 2005 looked strikingly similar to May 2022. Nick Shay/University of Miami, CC BY-ND]
Here's our guide on how to prepare for and survive hurricanes. You can also follow our tips from Hurricane Preparedness Week to break down the process.
Governor Gavin Newsom recently announced his Extreme Heat Action Plan, allocating $37.6 billion to combat climate change and ensure California is ready for rising temperatures.
**Economy**
The Federal Reserve’s strategy to curb inflation appears to be having an effect. Retail giants like Walmart and Target have reported slower sales, with consumers spending less on goods and more on experiences and travel. However, Target’s earnings caused a major sell-off on Wall Street, leading to the Dow’s biggest single-day drop since 2020.
JP Morgan predicts that "revenge driving" this summer could push gas prices up to $6 per gallon. While opinions vary, East Coast gasoline inventories are at their lowest level since 2011, and by August, they may fall below 160 million barrels — the lowest since the 1950s. A major wild card could be a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast, which could disrupt oil and gas infrastructure. The government will release its hurricane outlook next week, so we’ll cover that soon.
Rents in the U.S. have hit record highs and are expected to continue rising. A new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that remote work contributed to high home prices, though signs suggest the housing market is beginning to slow.
The UK is also facing record-high inflation (9%) and the risk of a recession. With energy bills soaring, one in four Britons has skipped meals, and two-thirds have avoided using heating when needed. Prices are expected to rise further, and the central bank may raise interest rates to 1%, the largest increase since 2009.
[Image: via Reuters]
**Supply Chain**
President Biden has invoked the Defense Production Act to accelerate baby formula production and authorized military planes to bring Nestlé formula from Switzerland. The Access to Baby Formula Act allows WIC recipients to use vouchers for any brand, not just one that may be unavailable during a crisis. It’s still unclear how quickly these measures will ease the shortage.
Be wary of baby formula scams, where people pay high prices but never receive the product. Here are some tips from the FTC and us to avoid fraud:
- Use search engines to verify companies or products. Look for terms like “review,†“complaint,†or “scam.†Tools like Fakespot can help.
- Avoid paying with gift cards, money transfers, or cryptocurrency. Credit cards offer better protection, and PayPal provides buyer protection.
- Sellers must ship orders within the time stated in ads or within 30 days. If they can’t, they must offer a revised date or a full refund.
- Check with local resources, such as your pediatrician or WIC office, for formula availability.
Biden has also urged farmers to double crop this year to boost global food supply and stabilize prices. However, this comes with risks, including soil depletion, especially with a fertilizer shortage in the U.S. To address this, Biden announced $500 million in funding for fertilizer production.
**Covid**
The FDA has approved the Pfizer booster for children aged 5–11, to be taken five to nine months after the last dose. Unvaccinated kids were hospitalized twice as often as vaccinated ones during the omicron wave, and hospitalizations among children rose by 8.4% in the second week of May.
US households can now order a third round of free COVID-19 tests from the CDC. The FDA has also limited the use of the J&J vaccine due to rare clotting issues, restricting it to those who cannot access other vaccines.
The U.S. has reached 1 million confirmed deaths from the virus, and cases continue to rise. Understanding whether we're still in a public health emergency is crucial for funding and preparedness.
Opinion: A new wave? Stay calm, stay prepared.
**Ukraine**
Even Switzerland is moving closer to NATO, following Finland and Sweden’s applications for membership. Turkey’s president opposes the move, but the process could be expedited to protect both countries from Russian threats.
The U.S. embassy reopened in Kyiv, and the Senate appointed the first U.S. ambassador to Ukraine in three years.
Here’s the latest map of the conflict and live updates.
**The Rest**
Check out our disaster glossary to understand key emergency management terms.
A new report shows that firearm production in the U.S. has tripled since 2000, with personal protection handguns like Glocks now outselling rifles. In 2021, police recovered 19,344 ghost guns — a tenfold increase since 2016. There are over 400 million guns in circulation in the U.S.
China is building a 590-foot-tall 3D-printed dam in Tibet, designed by AI and constructed entirely by machines. It will generate five billion kWh annually.
A MÄori community in New Zealand uses a board game called Marae-opoly to manage flood risks.
For those interested in climate history, a new documentary on Paramount+ called *Black Gold* explores efforts to hide evidence of global warming. We’ll share our thoughts once we’ve seen it.
Did you know Mangalitza pigs can fend off bears? These pigs might not be the breed, but they sure show some fierce spirit.