Continue to be optimistic about packaging and light industrial consumption that benefit low-cost cost logic

Source: Shen Wan Hongyuan

This week's opinion:

This week's observation: 1) Falling raw material prices will improve the profitability of the packaging and light industry consumer sectors. In the packaging industry, downstream orders and consumption are highly correlated and stable; and the leading enterprises benefit from the industry integration logic, and still gain market share, and the industry chain's voice and influence are enhanced. In the short-term perspective, falling raw material prices will help ease the pressure on earnings. Such as Jinjia shares, Hexing packaging, Donggang shares, Yongxin shares. Also benefiting from the falling prices of raw materials, there is Zhongshun Jierou in the household paper industry. 2) This week, we visited IECIE, the world's largest electronic cigarette exhibition in Shanghai. The conference is divided into heating non-combustion products, smoke-type smoke, traditional smoke-type electronic cigarettes and various electronic cigarette related accessories. Non-burning and small smoke products are the most popular.

About heating non-combustion products:

1) Battery life: The product generally needs to be equipped with charging treasure, but the single-charge subsequent flight capability is stronger than IQOS. The Sichuan Zhongyan's kung fu does not even need to charge the treasure, and the battery life can reach a whole package of cigarettes. 2) Tobacco taste: The taste of the smoker is close to that of real smoke. More smoke-type and hybrid types are suitable for Chinese smokers. The smokers of Sichuan Zhongyan and Yunnan Tobacco are most loved by the old smokers at the exhibition. 3) How to use the cartridge: In addition. It is also a big difficulty to pull out the cartridges after smoking. The Webacco of Yunnan Zhongyan and the MOK of Hubei Zhongyan have a better experience. They adopt “side push” and “press down pop-up” respectively, and the tobacco residue is less, but still Consumer education is required before the purchase of smokers.

Part of the core point of the e-cigarette forum: Is the application of IQOS able to pass the FDA? Depending on the content of the packaging label of IQOS, it is difficult to apply as a harm reduction product MRTP; if it is only a generic new tobacco product, it is expected to apply in 2019. . How do Chinese tobacco companies bypass IQOS in terms of patents? 1) The risk of patent infringement on smoking articles is not high. After the IQCenter's core patent "Center Heating" was declared invalid, China Tobacco could upgrade from heating materials, technology, and processes to bypass the patent rights of IQOS. 2) There is still a need to break through the smoke bomb. IQOS has applied for more than 2,000 patents on cartridges. China Tobacco is currently trying to bypass it by various means, and products exported overseas are subject to inspection by new tobacco researchers before they can be exported. In addition, the future may also be related to Philip Morris International. Reduce patent risks by means of negotiation/patent mutual ownership.

About the smoke-type electronic cigarette: The small smoke is popular among young people due to its light and stylish appearance, rich taste, long battery life and simple operation. It is headed by the brands such as Relx, Laan, and NOSMini. The region is causing the trend; while the products of traditional high-powered smoke-and-oil e-cigarette manufacturers (such as SMOK, Vaporesso, etc.) are gradually developing in two categories. One type of products is developed in small smoke (small and light), and the other is targeted at The "young people" who are good at steam, the product is powerful (steamy) and the shape is full of technology, but in general, the heat of such products is reduced.

The overall feeling: domestic Chinese tobacco companies have more advantages in the taste of heating non-combustion products, and the development of smoking tools is also innovative (such as Webacco's side suction, Kung Fu endurance, etc.), but the comprehensive performance of a single product There is still room for improvement. On the other hand, we believe that the offline offline experience store model is more important. For the first time experience, all kinds of products need to learn how to start, heat, smoke, wait for warm-up, endurance, and most importantly under the guidance of sales personnel. With the removal of cartridges and maintenance of appliances, offline stores help to raise awareness and educate consumers. With the maturity of China's product technology, the success of overseas water testing, and the improvement of the production capacity of the cartridge, the policy is expected to usher in the east wind, and it is beneficial to the Jinjia shares that have been set up in this field in advance and have established joint ventures with Xiaomi and Yunnan Tobacco. Technical reserves, new molecular smoke (excluding tobacco), and other stocks that are expected to be available to the market.

Responsible editor: Ge

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